for a better tomorrow. >> thank you lawrence. the tin man. let's play "hardball"! ♪ good evening. i'm chris matthews in sunny the tin man. let's play "hardball"! ♪ good evening. i'm chris matthews in sunny philadelphia. let me start tonight with this rare moment when you get to look behind the curtain. remember in "the wizard of oz" when we saw the man actually doing the talking? well, this is the week we heard from the real oz, mitt romney, pay no attention to the man behind the curtain, we're told. but how can we ignore the real mitt when he says half the country he wants to run is

filled with beggars, moochers, loafers, moochers, people who don't want to work, want the better off to give them breakfast in bed. he's the real willard who wants him to give him control of the country. and that's our topic tonight, the man behind the curtain who thinks compassionate conservative is yesterday's magic act and wants to crack down on the little people big time, at least that's the way he talks when he's fobbing for money down in tony boca raton. howard fineman is an msnbc correspondent. cynthia tucker is a syndicated columnist. first, brand new poll numbers nationally. let's check the "hardball scoreboard." new pew poll president obama over romney, among likely voters, 51% to 43%. howard, is this real, an eight-point lead? >> well, it could be. i think it's significant it's likely voters.

what's happening now, chris, is that some of the news organizations and polling organizations are starting to go from registered voters to likely voters, to people who are motivated. and i think while there were concerns earlier this year about whether president obama's supporters were motivated, whether they were encouraged, whether they were excited, either by positive news or fear, i think they're motivated. if they weren't motivated before, watching that mitt romney video will sure motivate president obama's supporters. so, if it's likely voters, maybe it's accurate. >> people don't do their best work when they're being dumped on. what do you think, cynthia? first, the poll numbers, which is staggering, an eight-point lead, bouncing out of the convention but not showing yet in this particular poll the effects of that terrible recording we got of mitt romney behind the door. >> indeed. that's what's so remarkable about it. you know, i'm not sure i believe that the president has an eight-point lead nationwide. but what this poll does is track

other polls that show obama has been building a lead over mitt romney since the conventions and even a little bit before. you know, the fall is when the campaign gets real. and this was the time that mitt romney fully expected elden gauge, he would use all that money to run all those nasty ads and this would be the moment when he would -- the race would certainly show him in a more favorable position. instead he's had one disastrous gaffe after another. his convention wasn't that great to start with. the democrats had a much better convention. and i think the poll numbers are showing all of that. >> yeah, well, let's take a look. by the way, this poll that shows romney down to 43, and the pew poll is a good poll, was taken before they got a look at the terrible tape of what romney really thinks about that 47%

that might be voting for obama. anyway, let's take a look at that famous scene in "the wizard of oz" when the curtain is pulled back and we see who's calling the shots. let's take a look. >> if you were really great and powerful, you'd keep your promises. >> do you presume to criticize the great oz? you ungrateful creatures. think yourselves lucky that i'm giving you audience tomorrow instead of 20 years from now. >> oh. >> the great oz has spoken. >> oh. >> pay no attention to that man behind the curtain! the great oz has spoken. >> who are you? >> oh, i -- i am the great and powerful wizard of oz. >> howard, that is the way this thing strikes me for the first time we've all known politicians have a secret life behind the scenes where they talk frankly and and oftentimes could candidly. i think this is the first time we've really gotten an unscrubbed, uncleaned up,

uncosmotized look at romney. >> first let me say, that's every report's-to-be favorite scene, when the curtain is pulled back. cynthia would agree with me. we love to see the curtains pulled back. it's a product of the modern age. every phone is video camera. every video camera is hi-def. this is supposedly off the record. this is as close to a real romney we'll get, although, i have to say, i question -- you can even question sincerity there. but if he isn't being who he is among people who are like him at what he thought was a closed, private event, then what else can we think is the real romney? and i think people can -- in this viral age, this was a viral video all across the web and social media. people can look for themselves. they can decide for themselves. they can look at this thing and

look at mitt romney in the raw, so to speak, politically. and what they saw, whatever the commentator said is more powerful, what the people themselves have seen. what they see, i'm guessing they don't like. >> cynthia, take a look at this new ad the democrats have out there. they're using that 47% line from romney against him in a new priorities usa ad set to run in swing states. watch it and tell me what you think of it. >> behind these doors, mitt romney calls half the american people -- >> they believe they're victims. >> victims? behind these doors, middle class families struggle and romney will make things even tougher, raising taxes by up to $2,000 to give multimillionaires a $250,000 tax break. >> they should take personal responsibility. >> and mitt romney will never convince us he's on our side. >> cynthia, your thoughts on that. >> well, this was a huge gift to the obama campaign, obviously.

you know, romney was already struggling with the perception that he did not relate to ordinary, working americans. this is a guy who is fantastically wealthy. and he grew up wealthy. you know, he's not somebody who struggled from a poor or even working-class childhood. he grew up in an affluent bubble. and he has struggled to persuade ordinary americans that he relates to people like them, that he understands their struggles. and his comments, his condescending, dismissive attitude toward half the country plays right into that narrative. so, it is very hard for him to now say -- to go out on the campaign trail and say, no, no, i do care about ordinary folks who have fallen on hard times through no fault of their own. he sent his poor wife out on the campaign trail to claim these comments were taken out of

context. no, they weren't. as howard said, people are able to listen for themselves at a very rich man, a man, again, who grew up healthy, being very dismissive of half the country. >> that same pew poll makes the very point you're just making. it shows two-thirds of registered voters choosing barack obama as the candidate who connects better with ordinary people. look at that. 23% chose mitt romney as candidate that best connects. that's less than a quarter. now look at something, light-hearted, you might say, light-hearted comment by george w. bush, the last republican president, about the super rich. he's sort of parrotting the way romney talks. this is back in october of 2000 when then-governor george bush spoke about the haves and have mores. >> this is an impressive crowd

the haves, and the have mores. some people call you the elite. i call you my base. >> howard, two points. one, he was making fun of that kind of elitist attitude. second thing, at least george w. bush, not to praise him too highly, did believe in compassionate conservativism, he did get prescription people for -- drugs for people who needed them, those that retired, a group that romney seems to be mocking as part of his 47% and he did do that great work against aids in africa. is compassionate conservative as a phrase dead? >> it did seem to be at that fund-raiser in florida. it seemed to me, early on, and i've covered supply-siders and their theories from the beginning, they argued back in

the day, that ronald reagan days, that supply-side economics would lift people out of poverty. that it was good for all of america. i'm willing to grant they believed it when they said it. it wasn't a dodge to them, or at least to all of them or even most of them. what was so interesting about and compelling about the romney video, is that he makes no pretense to claim that tax cuts can hurt poor people. he says we can't sell it to them. and beyond that, he seems to think that it's irrelevant to the lives of the very people that the supply-siders back in the day claimed they most wanted to help. that's what gave power to ronald reagan's version of supply-side economics. he was able to argue, at least, and i think sincerely, that it would help all of america. mitt romney, behind closed doors, made no such attempt to sugarcoat it in any way. he said, look, we want tax cuts

-- >> trying to clean up for it, howard and cynthia. today in atlanta, mitt romney argued he would help the poor and the middle class. let's take a listen. >> this is how america works. it does not work by a government saying, become dependent on government, become dependent upon redistribution. that will kill the american entrepreneurship that's lifted our economy over the years. the issue of this campaign is not who cares about the poor and the middle class. i do. he does. the question is, who can help the poor and the middle class? i can. he can't. he's proven it in four years. >> spoken like a man born on third base. you know, given his name, his prominence, his wealth, given his education, prep school, and on to the ivy league, a man who doesn't like redistribution unless it comes from within the family, apparently. your thoughts, cynthia? >> well, that's part of mitt romney's problem, chris. you nailed it. he grew up in an affluent

bubble. it's not a question of whether he cares about the poor or the middle class. i'm not sure mitt romney ever gave the middle class or the poor a second thought. he hasn't known any average americans. he grew up, went to a tony private school, went to brigham young, then off to harvard and then to bain and company, the management consulting firm. not many average working joes there. so, he simply hasn't known many ordinary americans who fail through no fault of their own, because the plant closed, who go bankrupt because they got sick and couldn't pay their health care bills. he doesn't know people like that. and he has a very hard time, i think, imagining that there are people out there like that and it shows. if you're not rich, by golly, it must be your own fault. that is what has replaced compassionate conservativism. >> i have to go now. i'm sorry, both of you, but we have to go. let me tell you something. i thought when paul ryan, his chosen running mate, had to come

out today and say, he's inarticulate as a defense, boy, that guy's jumping ship, isn't he? thank you, howard feinman and cynthia tucker. coming, what did mark mckennan, charles krautheimer, peggy noonan all have in common? the republican partisans who think mitt romney is blowing it and saying it in public. they are jumping ship. also, remember that great "snl" segment in which michael dukakis says of george herbert walker bush, i can't believe i'm losing to this guy? that's how republicans feel about president obama, but they're wrong and that may be because -- we'll talk about it. they think he's a foreign-born, socialist, muslim, in the fever swamps of their gop minds. anyway, they're not losing to that guy, because that guy doesn't exist. anyway, clint eastwood asked the question since his convention performance, what was he thinking? >> if someone is dumb enough to ask me to go to a political convention and say something, you know, they're going to have

to take what they get. >> and that somebody dumb enough was the candidate, mitt romney, believe it or not. he's putting him down, too. anyway, that's in the sideshow. let me finish with mitt romney's redefining of the word, redistribution. this is "hardball," the place for politics. [ female announcer ] roam like the gnome this fall. and get outstanding deals with the travelocity fall hotel sale. you can save up to 40% on select hotels. so book your hotel now and save up to 40%. hurry, offer ends soon. book now at travelocity. flo: every driver is different. we've got great news for them all. you can try snapshot from progressive before you switch your insurance. [ horn honks ] just plug snapshot into your car, and drive like you -- to see if your good driving could save you up to 30%. so try the way to save that's as unique as you are. now you can test-drive snapshot before you switch. visit progressive.com today.

tonight, we have a slew of new polls from battleground states across the country. let's check the battleground scoreboard. first to virginia where a new york times/cbs/quinnipiac poll finds president obama with a four-point lead over mitt romney. about the same there, 50/46. in wisconsin, same poll shows the president leading by six, 51/45. that's important given paul ryan is on the ticket. and in colorado, obama with a small lead. always tricky now that state. why is colorado tricky? 47/48. that close.

welcome back to "hardball." the floodgates have opened.

criticism of the romney campaign by his fellow republicans is growing louder and fiercer since romney's caught-on-tape comments on that 47% came to light monday. here was republican strategist mark mckinnon this morning. >> what we're seeing is an increasing problem of him being able to connect with voters in a sense that he understands and shares their values and concerns. and that gap's widening. >> uber conservative charles krautheimer, who has defended romney in the past, ripped into his comments last night on fox. let's take a look. >> he said these are people who consider themselves victims. now, that's not a very smart thing to say. it's not even accurate. and you don't win an election by

disparaging just about half the electorate. simply as a matter of appealing to the electorate, the way he put it was about the worst possible way. >> well, former george w. bush speechwriter, david fromme, wrote this in "the daily beast," today, "mitt romney has just committed the worst presidential gaffe since gerald ford announced in 1976 there was no soviet domination of eastern europe." that's a status to meet. peggy noonan says this, "it's time to admit the romney campaign is an incompetent one. it's not big. it's not brave. it's not thoughtfully tackling great issues. it's always been too small. all the activists party supporters and big donors should be. mitt romney is is no puppet. an intervention is in order. mitt, this isn't working." there's plenty more. ed rendell, former governor of pennsylvania and msnbc political analyst and john fehery is a republican strategist. thank you, gentlemen. john, are the criticisms accurate from a political partisan point of view? are they hitting the truth about what romney's been caught doing here? >> well, absolutely. first of all, they weren't

accurate. of those 70 million americans that don't pay federal income tax, 42 million work. and many of them work in two or three jobs and make less than $19,000. can you say, chris, those people don't accept personal responsibility, working two or three jobs just to feed their families? they're inaccurate, insensitive, almost callous in disregard for the american people. it is just a stunning statement. and those commentators among the republican party got it right. i mean, i'm not sure it's retrievable at this point. >> let me go to john. john, as a political partisan, do you believe what is said by the smart people in the party is accurate, not whether or not they should say it, but is it accurate about romney? >> let me say this, we've got him right where we want them now. the fact of the matter is -- the fact is that the question -- the point of the 47% was the wrong point to make. if you're running for president, you have to get as many votes as you can.

a lot in the 47% are people who want to vote for mitt romney. what they need from mitt romney is a practical plan. how are you going to fix this economy? i like the campaign. i like the people in the campaign. but i think they're way too ideological. i think people want practical solutions. they don't want an ideological debate. they need some plans. >> let me give you a practical bit of advice, governor romney, you haven't asked for, but here's a thought. i looked at a recent poll. if it weren't for people 65 and older, you'd be losing so the bulk of your support, and the only margin much your support is older people. now you come out in public now because this tape has gotten out, saying you trashed people who are retired, people on social security, on medicare. you're trashing them. the very people who are your margin of success you're dumping

on now. why did you do it? anyway, many republicans seem to be growing tired of defending their candidate. when asked what politician would write off so many potential voters as romney has done here, former virginia congressman thomas davis, a smart guy, who's a romney supporter, told politico, quote, no one with any political instincts. he need to be scripted the rest of the campaign. he's a ceo not a political animal." and lindsey graham, senator from south carolina, had some advice for romney who spent yesterday fund-raising in utah. senator graham said, quote, he needs to be talking about the economy and not in utah. he's not going to get beat because of money. he ought to be running in ohio and florida, like he's running for governor and running in virginia like he's running for sheriff. governor rendell, it seems like romney is back doing what he did in the primaries, going out to bankroll himself so he can do a dresden-style bombing campaigns that he did back then. in other words, don't sell yourself. spend money destroying your enemies. >> president obama is an -- a known commodity. i don't think a television bombing campaign is going to work. i think john's advice is right. is this retrievable? it's almost to the point where it isn't, in my judgment.

it's almost to the point where scott brown and are going to say forget about the top of the ticket, vote for me. they'll cut him loose. if it's retrievable at all, they have to do what john says. they have to talk about concrete examples. if the pew poll is anywhere close to right and he's eight points behind now nationally, it's time to throw caution to the wind, get out there and specify what you're going to do. give the american people concrete plans. see if it works. you've got nothing to lose. if it doesn't work, you'll lose at this point, looks like you're going to lose anyway. so, go out there and do what you believe in and spell it out. >> you know -- >> remember the old cartoon where the lone ranger is surrounded by indians and he says to tonto, we're surrounded by indians. and he he says, what you mean, pale face, you're surrounded. the best defense your running mate says this, you're inarticulate. listen to what paul ryan said about romney's 47% rant. here it is.

>> he was obviously inarticulate in making this point. the point we're trying to make here is, under the obama economy, government dependency is up and economic stagnation is up. >> do you think governor romney regrets saying what he did? >> oh, i think he would have said it differently, for sure. but the point still stands. >> there you go. what do you think when your vice presidential running mate, the sir galahad you brought in with you, starts saying you're inarticulate. just a thought? what do you think? >> i think paul ryan is a smart guy and i think he said what he had to say which is the candidate has to straighten up. he has to get his words better. he has to connect better with voters. he's got to get the ceo hat off and run like a politician. he's not run like a politician. sometimes he speaks the truth too close to the bone.

he's got to be more political in his language. as the governor said, he has to connect better with voters, especially in ohio. i don't think this is irretrievable. i think he can still win. he has three debates where he can lay out his vision but he's going to get on it and be much more practical and much less ideological if he wants to win this thing. >> but chris, i would quarrel with john about one thing and that is, republicans are trying to spin this that governor romney misspoke or did a bad choice of words. i think we got a very unusual view at the very soul of what he believes as a political person. and that is that 47% of the country are users or takers. of course, he's wrong on the facts. but i think he believes that to be the case. and he believes maybe they think they're victims and they suck the blood out of the government. that's not the case. there are so many people in that 47% who given the least bit of opportunity are going to go out there and do great things for this country. i think we saw a very good look into his political soul and it wasn't a very good look. >> yeah, i remember -- remember governor john kennedy saying life is unfair.

and everybody knows that. everybody knows life is unfair, that some are born with assets, others are never going to see in their life. everybody got an equal chance at the starting gate. those that fumbled, didn't make a lot of money like he did, are bad people. it's not going to be a popular presidential candidate. thank you, governor rendell, former pennsylvania governor for all those years. john feehery, you're learning. you know it's coming, mitt romney's secretly videotape is on jon stewart and colbert. they are going after him with their treatment. this is "hardball," the place for politics.

live with kelley and michael today? they asked mitt who he would like to play him in a movie. >> my favorite actor is gene hackman so i would like gene hackman. >> well, after seeing that, gene hackman did a screen test. he's a perfect mitt romney. take a look. >> as it turns out, i have this affinity for beachfront property.

>> of course, that was gene hackman as lex luthor in "superman." now the late night reaction to mitt romney in that secret tape. >> the big rollout of romney 9.30 started yesterday. how did the reboot go? yes, the romney campaign's reboot was spoiled by footage from last may of governor romney at a $50,000 a plate fund-raiser talking to rich people about poorer people, in a matter you would imagine cartoon rich people talk about cartoon poorer people. >> there are 47% of the people who will vote for the president no matter what. who are dependent on government, who believe they are victims, who believe they are entitled to health care, to food, to housing, to you name it. >> release the hounds. >> mitt nailed it. obama supporters are nothing but lazy parasites.

get a job! get this. the 47% who don't pay federal income tax are mostly elderly, children and the working poor, and u.s. military personnel deployed in war zones who are exempt from paying federal taxes on combat pay. see. romney mentioned the troops in a speech. >> i bet there will be more of that -- more where that came from when "saturday night live" gets into it. now for a questionable casting job. i'm talking about an ad from andy barr, he's a kentucky republican running against incumbent democrat ben chandler. >> obama and chandler are destroying us, putting the coal industry out of business, it's devastating. this is our way of life. it means jobs for people around here, good-paying jobs. and ben chandler, he doesn't even care. >> so why is that ad facing a backlash? the man doing all the talking in

that ad happens to be a coal company executive who's donated thousands of dollars to republican candidates. not a coal miner, as the overalls and hard hat would suggest. barr's campaign points out the executive, heath lovell, worked in the mines as a teenager. that didn't pass muster. the mine workers union who said, i've never seen anything so appalling and deceitful from the coal industry and in a campaign. you have a pencil pusher acting like a coal miner. the tone of the ad, disappointing. clint eastwood is on a publicity stint for his new upcoming "the curve" but the question keeps coming up about his convention performance, of course, the empty chair. >> people loved it or hated it. i was just having fun. you figure someone's asked you -- if somebody's dumb enough to ask me to go to a political convention and say something, you know, they're going to have to take what they get.

>> and the person who was, quote, dumb enough, close quote, to give him a speaking slot? well, that would be mitt romney. that's not exactly a ringing endorsement of his candidate. up next, republicans can't believe they're losing to barack obama. maybe that's because the barack obama they think they're running against doesn't exist. that's ahead. i'm millissa rehberger, here is what is happening. i'm only in my 60's... i've got a nice long life ahead. big plans. so when i found out medicare doesn't pay all my medical expenses, i looked at my options. then i got a medicare supplement insurance plan. [ male announcer ] if you're eligible for medicare, you may know it only covers about 80% of your part b medical expenses. the rest is up to you. call now and find out about an aarp medicare supplement insurance plan, insured by unitedhealthcare insurance company. like all standardized medicare supplement plans, it helps pick up some of what medicare doesn't pay. and could save you thousands in out-of-pocket costs.

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though i often disagree with republicans, i actually never learned to hate them the way the far right that now controls their party seems to hate our president and a lot of other democrats. >> he's so sharp these days. anyway, welcome back to "hardball." that was the game-changer, bill clinton. he got right to the heart of it at the democratic national convention. republicans have created a mythical obama out there so they can hate him. they say he's a socialist, wasn't born in america, that he's a muslim, and unfortunately, some of those lies seep into the american consciousness. a pew poll this summer showed that less than half of americans say obama is christian. 17% incorrectly say he's muslim. 31% say they don't know. it in a ppp poll in a crucial swing state of ohio, i've said this before, 37% of american

voters don't believe the president was born here. republicans have had to stitch together a false obama so they can hate him. joining me is senator chuck schumer from new york. they've turned him into a pinata, so they can bang at him and now they're going after this redistribution phrase. they dug it up from 14 years ago. what is wrong with redistribution? that's what we do any time we help anybody out. >> first of all, it shows how desperate they are to come up with the tape. they're trying to change the subject. it's not working. we should ask them, is it redistributionist to support the eitc, originated by president ford and expanded by president reagan? how about giving a veteran who's wounded disability benefits, is that redistribution? how about social security, is that redistributionist?

i mean, they just have to come up with slogans because they can't argue on the merits. and the problem is, when you can't argue what you really believe on the merits, you slip up. that's what we saw romney do the other day. >> it reminded me of jimmy carter, who i worked for, after reagan about something he said about medicare in the early '60s. he said, there you go again. the romney campaign dug up an audio clip of senator obama speaking, nothing secretly, about the role of government. let's listen to 14 years ago. >> i think that what we're going to have to do is somehow resuscitate the notion that government action can be effective at all. there has been a systematic -- i don't think it's too strong to call it a propaganda campaign against the possibility of government action and it's efficacy. and i think some of it has been deserved.

chicago housing authority has not been a model of good policymaking and neither, necessarily, have been the chicago public schools. >> well, there he is, the state senator, a liberal state senator, pointing out deficiencies of government when it doesn't work. good critique there. this is what romney loves, they jumped on it, acknowledging shortcomings of government and how agencies are run that way. romney -- here in the case, obama uses the word redistribution to advocate for fairness. let's listen to the part republicans love. >> i think the trick is how do we structure government systems that pool resources and hence facilitate some redistribution, because i actually believe in redistribution, at least at a certain level, to make sure that everybody's got a shot. how do we pool resources at the same time we decentralize delivery systems in ways that

both foster competition and work in the marketplace and can foster innovation at the local level and tailored to particular communities. >> the romney campaign, of course, thinks they struck gold with that. a press conference called this afternoon, rnc's chairman reince priebus called it, quote, outrageous. of course, he's the obama -- the romney campaign's mini me on these subjects. your thoughts? >> it's not going to resonate. social security redistributionists? how about graduated income tax? those hard right new yorkers are against graduated income tax. they want to go back to the 1800s where the wealthy paid the same as the poor. it's just not going to work. and i'll tell you what's happening. romney is bringing the entire republican ticket down. one of the reasons that our senate numbers have gone up in the last few weeks is distaste for romney and this kind of

attack politics without being able to say what he's really for. today, had you scott brown, not even admitting that he would endorse romney. mitch mcconnell at a press conference said -- weekly press conference didn't even take questions because he would have been asked about the 47%. three republican candidates denounced what romney said. so, he's taking the whole ticket down. and until -- their problem is -- everyone's saying, be specific. if they were specific, they would have to show what they really believe. and what they really believe, being hard right, is so far away from the american people that they know they'd lose, so they're trying to speak about things they don't believe or coming up with these red herrings. but it just doesn't work, because as bill clinton, as you showed before, said, what's going to determine this election is who can do better for your future. and barack obama is laying that out. they're calling him names that don't stick because they have no basis in fact. >> there they go again.

anyway, thank you, senator chuck schumer of new york. joining me is pulitzer prize writer, eugene robinson from "the washington post" and msnbc political analyst. why are we hearing about a 14-year-old audiotape of an event held in public out in chicago? nothing secret about it, nothing boca raton about this. >> i'm sure that the campaign probably had this under glass. when in trouble, break glass, pull the lever, and they brought it out now because romney's in trouble. it's very clear, not just from the polling, from the reaction to the 47% speech that -- so whatever they got, i think they're going to pull out and use. >> this idea that obama's in trouble because he does believe in some redistribution. well, the medicare, with drugs,

with prescription drugs, that's some redistribution. head start is some redistribution. paying policeman in a tough neighborhood to deal with the bad guys, that's some redistribution. every time a dollar is passed from one person to another, that's redistribution. what is he -- why is he consider this like i am a communist kind of talk? >> well, the republicans have tried to equate redistribution, that word, with communism, socialism, you know, lennon, whatever. if you actually look -- listen to the quote, so that everyone has a shot. that's the part that americans all agree with, that everybody ought to have a shot. and everyone ought to have a fair shot. and i think all but the -- what senator schumer called the hard right, and i would tend to agree, would say that that's a goal and something government can facilitate. to the extent that this clip even resonates at all, because it's, frankly, 14 years old and if you take it in context, it says what i think what most people believe. >> well, here's some thinking.

we don't have time to show it. i'll get to it later in the show. i think this judge in lubbock, texas, his commentary on what's going on in this country is real, scary and far right. anyway, gene robinson, thanks much. so much. up next, todd akin staying in that race in missouri. he's in there to state despite the republican party's efforts to get him out, shoo him away. lots of new polls in some of

lots of new polls in some of the hot senate races around the country. according to a new poll from wbr, elizabeth warren is leading incumbent senator scott brown by 5, 45 to 40 among likely massachusetts voters, and that's one of many recent polls we've had showing warren with the lead. down in virginia, a new "washington post" poll shows democrat tim kaine with an eight-point lead over republican george allen. that's the strongest he's looked down there, tim kaine, 51-in the old dominion. finally to connecticut, where democrat chris murphy leads former pro-wrestling executive linda mcmahon, 37-33. a lot of votes not counted there yet. anyway, we'll be right back.

we're back. there was a time when republicans thought they had the inside track in the battle for control of the u.s. senate. and one of their sure things was beating democrat claire mccaskill in missouri. then todd akin won the republican primary and started talking about legitimate rape and his poll numbers collapsed. now, despite the republican party's best efforts, akin's staying in this race. his website said yesterday, "i'm a women," that's how they pronounced and spelled it, "i'm a women for todd akin." and one woman picture there had is a democratic tracker. she's been following the campaign for claire mccaskill. and they replaced it with missouri women standing with todd akin.

there they are standing, but there's no todd akin in that picture. he's not even pictured. with me now is dana milbank and shirra toblitz. why is this guy still able to walk before a camera and say, i want to be a united states senator? >> well, first of all, i love the idea that he has a democratic woman in his campaign photo there, because, of course, democrats are the one most enthusiastic about him remaining in the race. because he's the one likeliest to hand the seat right back to them. you know, this is maybe the luckiest man alive, because he had this horrible scandal, looked like he was going down, then the conventions came. and now mitt romney's in trouble.

that's the bigger distraction for the republicans than what's happening in missouri. all eyes are off him. the democrats are laying low. they don't want to bring this thing up again, until they hit the 25th, when he has to stay on >> well, he's still in the race, because he won the primary. republicans had other choices in the primary. it was a three-way race, and he won it. and he can continue to stay on the ballot. the official date is the 25th. that's tuesday, as you mentioned. but, actually, it might be a few days earlier than that, because officials need to start printing military ballots. so the clock is winding down, and we've had no indication, we've talked to his aides today. "roll call" has talked to his aides today. todd akin's staying in the race, he's not getting out. >> what role has reince priebus played in this? has there been any effort from

the leadership? have they really tried to shoo him out of this race or not? >> they did everything they could, which was pool the money, right? national republicans, john cornyn, even crossroads pulled their ad bias initially after todd akin made those comments that you talked about earlier. the national republicans, john cornyn's committee says they're going to stay out of the race. crossroads now says they're going to stay out of the race. i find it hard to believe national republicans would even consider going back into the race, considering how much todd akin has now started to run against them and the bad things he's said about them to try to raise money. >> imagine something that smells so bad that karl rove gets away it. anyway, once struggling claire mccaskill is now ahead in the missouri senate race. she leaves akin by five points. that's not exactly a badge of honor to only be beating that political skunk by five points. this guy is unacceptable

nationally, and she's only got five on him. what are people down in missouri thinking about? >> i think what's going on here, chris, is that mccaskill has not, making a big issue of this, as i was saying, because of all people, she wants him to remain in this race until there's no possibility of him being replaced on the ballot. and thanks to newt gingrich getting him money, sending him staffers, it does look like he's going to stay in the race. after that is when the barrage takes place. and i think that's when you see those poll numbers diverge again. >> here's todd akin's wife said in an interview with the "national journal" this weekend about pressuring her husband to get out of the race. "party bosses dictating who is allowed to advance through the party and make all the decisions, it's just like 1776 in that colonists rose up and said, not in my home, you don't come in and rape my daughters and my wife, but there they go again." what do you make of this, shira, that she's using the word "rape" which got her husband in the trouble that he's in. >> i think they're not backing down. he first kind of apologized, but

then said, i'm staying in the race. and i think by staying in the race, he's kind of sticking by his words. look, this senate race is still going to be a little bit competitive. claire mccaskill is right now ahead by five points, as you mentioned. that's because the president is so unpopular in missouri. >> thanks so much, dana milbank and shira. when we return, let me finish with mitt romney redefining that word "redistribution." a terrible word. you're watching "hardball," the place for politics. let me finish tonight with that word, "redistribution." you know, the word mitt romney has grabbed on and is chewing iy has a facebook page these days. but where's the relationship status? well, esurance is now in a relationship...with allstate. and it looks pretty serious. esurance. click or call.

let me finish tonight with that word, "redistribution." you know, the word mitt romney has grabbed on and is chewing like his dog, seamus, with a new bone. so when we get a social security check, that's, oh, my god, redistribution. someone's money is going to someone like them who worked all their life to earn it. terrible. when that teacher gets paid, or a private in the army, oh, my god, more redistribution. terrible. or the student who manages to get into college. how about that police officer working the night watch in a